Week 8 · The Grid Board
Updated Tue 9:38 PM ETGame of the WeekCAR @ GBModel: GB 52% · 48.1 total pointsTwo offenses, a near coin flip. The one everybody will be watching.Thu 8:15 PM ETFull breakdown →Strongest CallCIN 81%to beat TENThe highest win probability on the board.Sun 1:00 PM ETFull breakdown →Biggest Edge vs the LineMIA 4.5 ptsModel MIA +2.5 · Line MIA +7Where the football data and the market are furthest apart.Sun 4:25 PM ETFull breakdown →Top OffenseBUF 31.8 ptsprojected vs BALThe highest projected score of the week.Sun 1:00 PM ETFull breakdown →Top DefenseWAS holds PHI to 16.3fewest points allowed on the boardThe toughest matchup for any offense this week.Sun 8:20 PM ETFull breakdown →Total to WatchOVER 46.5CHI @ SEA · Model 49.0Where the model and the line are furthest apart on the total.Mon 8:15 PM ETFull breakdown →
Three products · one model
Weekly Matchups
Every game against the market: projected score, win probability, the spread and the total, and where the data and the line agree, and where they don't.
Week 8 · 14 games left · next kickoff Thu 8:15 PM ET Open Weekly → Every positionPlayer Boards
Every quarterback, back, receiver, tight end and kicker graded on his own work, then adjusted for the offense he plays in and the injury report.
Injuries as of Oct 27 Open Players → All 32Team Context
Offense, defense and both lines: scoring floor, pace, protection, run gaps, who calls the plays and what the schedule gives up.
Offense, defense & both lines Open Teams →Why The Grid Model
Pure football data
No betting money in the model. It reads the game, not the handle.
Every game vs. the market
Spread, total and win probability next to the line, so you see where the data agrees and where it doesn't.
Updated all week
Injuries, quarterback changes and weather, in before kickoff.